Exhibit 05 · Wing of Judgment
You paid for two ski trips. They're the same weekend. One is worse. Your wallet will choose for you.
contested the classic effect — though a 2021 review finds it weaker and rarer than folklore says
SCENARIO 1 / 2
Money already spent is gone no matter what you do next — a rational decision weighs only future costs against future pleasures. But payments leave a psychological residue, and people behave as if a choice could retroactively justify the expense. Arkes and Blumer named this the sunk cost effect in 1985: offered the two ski trips you just weighed, 61% of their subjects chose the more expensive, less enjoyable trip — throwing a good weekend after bad money. The theater-ticket variant comes from Kahneman and Tversky's work on mental accounts: losing a $20 ticket discourages repurchase far more than losing an equivalent $20 bill, though the wallet is out exactly the same $20.
Why the contested badge? Because honesty is this museum's whole brand. A 2021 review by Ronayne, Sgroi and Tuckwell found that across many published studies the effect is often much smaller than the classic demos — and frequently absent. Perhaps the effect is fragile, perhaps the scenarios are, perhaps honoring sunk costs is sometimes sensible (reputation, commitment, incomplete information). The exhibit keeps the classic numbers on the plaque and the doubt right next to them.