Exhibit 04 · Wing of Judgment
Same disease. Same numbers. Same you. One changed word flips your decision.
well-replicated since 1981 · robust in meta-analyses, smaller than the original
The triage desk — choose a programme
Read the two programmes again: in this exhibit's other window, visitors saw the same outbreak with the same expected outcomes — 200 of 600 living is 400 of 600 dying. Logically the two versions are one decision. Psychologically they are opposites. When outcomes are framed as lives saved, most people lock in the sure gain. When framed as lives lost, most people gamble to avoid the sure loss. Losses loom larger than gains, so the frame — not the arithmetic — picks the policy.
Tversky and Kahneman reported the effect in 1981: 72% chose the sure thing in the gain frame, but 78% chose the gamble in the loss frame. Meta-analyses since (Kühberger 1998 and later) find the effect is real and robust, though typically smaller than the original headline numbers — which is why this plaque carries numbers and nuance together.